ACC Expanded Standings – 3/6/2006

This is really the last time that these standings will have much meaning. Obviously the regular season results are now set. The ACC tournament could have a critical impact on a few teams, but we’ll know just what that impact will be by next Monday. I doubt I’ll get a chance to rerun the numbers during the tournament.
Suffice it to say that there are two (three? See below) ACC teams who need to put forth a strong ACC Tournament showing to get into the NCAAs. Four teams are absolute locks and are just playing for seeding, and in Duke and NC State’s cases, trying to find their games.


Florida State and Maryland both won two games last week to put themselves back into serious NCAA contention. Most seem to think that the Seminoles’ win over Duke got them in. I mostly believe them, but I think they had to win that Miami game as well. As it stands now, their RPI is still a meager 56, but the other computer rankings are more impressed. More important for FSU, they now have 19 wins and one signature triumph. If any of you saw the Virginia-Maryland game yesterday, they interviewed UVA AD Craig Littlepage during the game. He is the chairman of the NCAA selection committee this year, so his comments on Florida State were significant. From what Littlepage said, the NCAA is definitely giving Florida State some credit for their near-win over Duke earlier in the year. The committee seems to be rounding that one up in FSU’s favor, giving them more like 19.5 wins. Sounds like a sure thing to me. But they better beat Wake on Thursday to be sure.
Maryland’s wins were much less interesting, but they are sitting at 18-11 on the season now and have a relatively healthy RPI of 47. If you remember back to this article, Maryland’s RPI alone puts that at a historical chance of between 30-50%. A win over Georgia Tech on Thursday would push them even higher. Beating BC on Friday isn’t out of the question either – the Terps did win their one meeting this season. If they win those two and then lose to UNC on Saturday, the Terps would be 20-12 with an RPI of between 40-45. If they were left out with 20 wins, it would be a precedent.
But you know what, that’s not really the whole story of ACC bubble teams. People will call me crazy, but take a look at Clemson. Like Maryland, they are 18-11. Their RPI sucks (70), but with two wins, you can be sure that that would climb. Of course, their second win would have to be over Duke, so it’s pretty unlikely, but at the same time, it would be mighty valuable (and would add up to a five-game winning streak). It’s a pretty unlikely happening, but it’s not impossible, especially with the way that Duke has been playing.
But back to reality. Let me sum up Maryland and Florida State’s resumes:
FSU
Pros

  • 19 wins
  • Controversial loss to Duke (half a win)
  • Actual win over Duke
  • Four wins in last five games
  • Strong non-RPI computer ratings (see below)

Cons

Maryland
Pros

  • 18 wins
  • Quality wins over Arkansas and Boston College
  • Decent non-conference schedule (Gonzaga, Arkansas, GW, Temple)
  • Decent RPI of 47

Cons

  • 5-7 since losing Chris McCray (the committee does take personnel changes into account)
  • 2-8 against likely NCAA teams

Standings? You want the expanded standings? YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE UP-TO-DATE EXPANDED STANDINGS!!

Team prev/cur

Pomeroy

Sagarin

Greenfield

RPI

Avg.

Postseason Prediction

Trend
Duke (27-3, 14-2) prev

1

1

1

1

1

Will probably need to make the ACC finals to ensure a 1 seed.

down
cur

1

1

3

1

1.5

UNC (21-6, 12-4) prev

12

9

14

13

12

Looking like a 2 seed now.  A 3 at the worst.

up
cur

7

8

9

8

7

BC (24-6, 11-5) prev

25

19

18

35

24.25

A 5 or 6 seed.  Good candidate for an upset loss.

up
cur

23

21

19

32

23.75

NC State (21-8, 10-6) prev

17

16

17

34

21

Hard to tell.  Anywhere from a 4 to an 9 seed.

down
cur

22

18

23

40

25.75

FSU (19-8, 9-7) prev

35

39

39

65

44.5

A dangerous 9 – 11 seed.

up
cur

27

24

27

56

33.5

Maryland (18-11, 8-8) prev

54

43

47

51

48.75

NCAA! Anywhere from an 9 to 12 seed.

up
cur

57

39

46

47

47.25

Clemson (18-11, 7-9) prev

65

56

64

72

64.25

NIT

up
cur

56

56

57

70

59.75

Miami (15-14, 7-9) prev

57

73

55

71

64

NIT

down
cur

60

74

58

81

68.25

Virginia (14-13, 7-9) prev

74

60

59

67

65

NIT, but just barely.

down
cur

82

73

63

77

73.75

VA Tech (14-15, 4-12) prev

67

80

77

116

85

Spring football!

down
cur

70

84

87

131

93

GA Tech (11-16, 4-12) prev

94

90

106

137

106.75

What number does Thaddeus Young want to wear?

down
cur

94

96

107

150

111.75

Wake Forest (15-15, 3-13) prev

106

97

100

113

104

Shopping for defensive plans on eBay.

up
cur

93

85

88

107

93.25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *