Bubble Watch – 2/23/2007

With things so tight for so many ACC teams, it’s worth checking on the standings after each game. While it wasn’t a good week for the bubble teams – BC, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson all damaged their standings – things are quite as bad as most would have you believe. If you listen to the TV folks and read what’s being written in the papers, you might think that UVA, BC, Clemson and Florida State are all out of the tourney right now. Not so.
From what I’m seeing, only Florida State has played their way out of the tournament at this point. Georgia Tech, Clemson and UVA are all iffy, but still in, while Boston College is in perfectly fine shape. Obviously, each of those teams needs to win another game or two, but they will. They pretty much have to, since some will play each other both in the regular season and in the ACC Tournament.


The current ratings:

Team

Overall

ACC

Pomeroy

Dance Card

Sagarin

RPI

Postseason

Trend

North Carolina

24-4

10-3

1

1

1

2

1 Seed

up

Duke

21-7

8-6

10

15

10

9

4 Seed

up

Maryland

21-7

7-6

12

21

13

17

5 Seed

up

Virginia Tech

19-8

9-4

27

19

20

22

6 Seed

up

Boston College

18-9

9-5

35

23

28

29

7 Seed

down

Clemson

19-8

5-8

24

28

25

35

9 Seed

down

Georgia Tech

18-9

6-7

15

40

19

44

10 Seed

up

Virginia

18-8

9-4

48

33

31

47

10 Seed

down

Florida St.

17-11

5-9

39

63

44

41

NIT

down

North Carolina St.

14-12

4-9

74

107

93

119

NIT

down

Wake Forest

13-14

4-10

91

113

91

121

Wishing for a new coach?

down

Miami FL

11-16

5-9

96

131

128

149

South Beach

up


Final games for bubble teams:
BC: Clemson, @GT (Pomeroy says 1-1) – One win probably clinches things
VT: Miami, @UVA, Clemson (Pomeroy says 2-1) – Probably already in, but one win cements it
Clemson: @BC, Miami, @VT (Pomeroy says 1-2) – Despite their collapse, one win puts them in pretty good shape. A road upset would be really nice.
GT: @UVA, UNC, BC (Pomeroy says 2-1) – They might need two to feel really good about things, but that could be tough. One here and one in the ACC Tourney might be enough.
UVA: GT, VT, @WF (Pomeroy says 2-1) – They blew one easy chance, but they still have three winnable games. Two would clinch things.
FSU: NCSU, @Miami (Pomeroy says 2-0) – They absolutely need both games and will probably need at least one ACC Tourney win too.
BTW, I’ll ask again, nicely this time. ACC cellar dwellers, please, please stop winning games. Just take one (two or three) for the team. The ACC thanks you and your budgets will too. Remember, more Tourney teams means more money.

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