Break Out The Slide Rules

A regular reader (and college professor) just figured out who’s going to win the ACC Tournament. He took Pomeroy’s ratings, applied them to the Log5 prediction method and PRESTO! – we have a champeen!
Actually, it just spits out the percent chance of each team winning, but going by the seedings if things ended today (and he put UNC as the 1 see, VT as the 2 and UVA as the 3), Carolina would be the overwhelming favorite. While their rating isn’t that much higher than Duke’s, they have a three times greater chance of winning the ACC Tourney. Check the results:

Fri Sat Sun Champion
North Carolina 1.00000 0.85970 0.63850 0.51400
Duke 0.93910 0.70350 0.26100 0.17110
Maryland 0.91280 0.68110 0.43280 0.14700
Georgia Tech 0.82730 0.45320 0.21980 0.05710
Virginia Tech 1.00000 0.51200 0.22560 0.05130
Boston College 1.00000 0.28660 0.05180 0.02060
Virginia 1.00000 0.29980 0.11270 0.01810
Clemson 0.54830 0.08260 0.02980 0.01300
Florida St. 0.45170 0.05760 0.01850 0.00720
North Carolina St. 0.17270 0.03480 0.00630 0.00050
Wake Forest 0.08720 0.01910 0.00280 0.00020
Miami FL 0.06090 0.00990 0.00050 0.00010


As I pointed out, it’s interesting to see just how big a gap the Tar Heels have on the field. The best explanation for this is that according to the Pomeroy ratings, Duke is the second best team followed by Maryland and Georgia Tech. Well, all of those teams will have relatively difficult seeds. VT, UVA and Boston College will make up seeds 2-4 (again, if things ended today), but they have the fifth, sixth and eighth best power ratings.
It’ll be interesting to rerun this once the real seeds are known. I have a hunch that either UVA or VT is going to be the top seed, not UNC.
If you want to see the whole calculation and give yourself a nasty flashback to your college math classes, check this PDF.
He also ran similar projections for the Big 12, CAA and Conference USA.

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