First Semester Prouty Ratings

I’m a bit of a stats geek. I like playing around with numbers and seeing what I can learn. Maybe it’s the engineer side of me. When it comes to evaluating basketball performance, the standard measures like points, rebounds or assists per game just don’t do a good enough job. They isolate only one aspect of the game.

That’s why I like some of the various player rating systems like Tendex or Prouty. You can read a bit about these calculations here. I like the Prouty in particular, because it takes the team’s overall record into account. While that may not be a great measure of individual contribution, it helps fill the gaps for all the things basketball players do to help their team win that don’t show up in the box score, like setting a good screen, boxing out, fighting through screens, diving for loose balls, etc. If a team has players doing those things, they’ll likely be more successful and that will be reflected in part in the overall team record.
The whole Prouty calculation is this: [{Points / (Field Goals Attempted*2 + FTA)} + {(Points + Assists*2 – Turnovers) / Minutes} + {(Rebounds + Steals + (Blocks/2) – Personal Fouls) / Minutes} + {(Minutes / (TEAM TOTAL Minutes / 5)) * Team Winning Pct} ] / 4
If you look closely, you’ll see that there are four main sections. I’ll call them Offensive Efficiency (how many points you score per shot), Points Per Minute (how many points you score or help others score per minute), Possessions Per Minute (how many possessions you gain or lose your team per minute) and Win Effect (how responsible you are to your team’s win percentage, based on minutes per game).
As you can see, it factors in most items in the box score, points, rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, fouls, etc. as well as some efficiency ratios. All-in-all, I think it does a good job of identifying those players who do the most to help their teams win.
At this point of the season, most of the pre-conference games are done. There may be a cupcake or two left on some schedules, but basically the first part of the season is over. Now seems like a good time to see who’s had the best start to the season. I’ll check back later in the year using only conference games to make things more fair, but for now, we just have to live with the fact that teams have played very different schedules.
So without further ado, here are your top 50 ACC players as ranked by Prouty:

Rank Player Team Prouty
1 Julius Hodge NCSU 0.605
2 JJ Redick Duke 0.576
3 Sean May UNC 0.572
4 Daniel Ewing Duke 0.568
5 John Gilchrist MD 0.564
6 Chris Paul WF 0.559
7 Shelden Williams Duke 0.555
8 Jarrett Jack GT 0.552
9 Rashad McCants UNC 0.530
10 Jawad Williams UNC 0.529
11 Devin Smith UVA 0.522
12 Elton Brown UVA 0.513
13 Robert Hite UM 0.511
14 Raymond Felton UNC 0.508
15 Sean Dockery Duke 0.495
16 Luke Schenscher GT 0.490
17 Chris McCray MD 0.480
18 Eric Williams WF 0.471
19 Guillermo Diaz UM 0.471
20 Justin Gray WF 0.469
21 Nik Caner-Medley MD 0.462
22 Andrew Brackman NCSU 0.461
23 Sharrod Ford CU 0.459
24 Tony Bethel NCSU 0.458
25 BJ Elder GT 0.458
26 Cliff Hammonds CU 0.458
27 Anthony Harris UM 0.448
28 Sean Singletary UVA 0.448
29 Shawan Robinson CU 0.445
30 Jamaal Levy WF 0.438
31 Will Bynum GT 0.437
32 Isma’il Muhammad GT 0.436
33 Jordan Collins NCSU 0.436
34 JR Reynolds UVA 0.435
35 Taron Downey WF 0.428
36 Zabian Dowdell VT 0.425
37 Marvin Williams UNC 0.424
38 David Noel UNC 0.421
39 Travis Garrison MD 0.420
40 DeMarcus Nelson Duke 0.417
41 Carlos Dixon VT 0.413
42 Cameron Bennerman NCSU 0.411
43 Ra’Sean Dickey GT 0.410
44 Anthony King UM 0.405
45 Akin Akingbala CU 0.404
46 DJ Strawberry MD 0.402
47 Anthony McHenry GT 0.400
48 Ilian Evtimov NCSU 0.394
49 Shavlik Randolph Duke 0.393
50 Ekene Ibekwe MD 0.393

At first glance, it looks like the ratings came about pretty close to what I expected. The guys at the top are generally considered the top players in the league. That’s a pretty good sign that the rating system is effective. It should produce reasonable results, but still help you to maybe see some nuances you wouldn’t otherwise pick up on.
I was surprised a bit to see McCants so low. I figured he’d be in the top three. It seems that what hurts him is his high number of fouls. Only Eric Williams in the top twenty has committed more fouls (30) than McCants’ 28. When your foul total is comparable to Eric Williams’, well, you have some work to do.
Conversely, I was also a bit startled to see Nick Caner-Medley up at number 22. From the heat he’s been taking from Maryland fans online, I’d have pegged him for much lower. Maybe they need to back off him a bit. Sure, his misses and turnovers tend to be dramatic, but overall, he’s the third most effective Terrapin.
I’ll put the whole table with the raw source data in a separate file here.

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