This is really the last time that these standings will have much meaning. Obviously the regular season results are now set. The ACC tournament could have a critical impact on a few teams, but we’ll know just what that impact will be by next Monday. I doubt I’ll get a chance to rerun the numbers during the tournament.
Suffice it to say that there are two (three? See below) ACC teams who need to put forth a strong ACC Tournament showing to get into the NCAAs. Four teams are absolute locks and are just playing for seeding, and in Duke and NC State’s cases, trying to find their games.

Florida State and Maryland both won two games last week to put themselves back into serious NCAA contention. Most seem to think that the Seminoles’ win over Duke got them in. I mostly believe them, but I think they had to win that Miami game as well. As it stands now, their RPI is still a meager 56, but the other computer rankings are more impressed. More important for FSU, they now have 19 wins and one signature triumph. If any of you saw the Virginia-Maryland game yesterday, they interviewed UVA AD Craig Littlepage during the game. He is the chairman of the NCAA selection committee this year, so his comments on Florida State were significant. From what Littlepage said, the NCAA is definitely giving Florida State some credit for their near-win over Duke earlier in the year. The committee seems to be rounding that one up in FSU’s favor, giving them more like 19.5 wins. Sounds like a sure thing to me. But they better beat Wake on Thursday to be sure.
Maryland’s wins were much less interesting, but they are sitting at 18-11 on the season now and have a relatively healthy RPI of 47. If you remember back to this article, Maryland’s RPI alone puts that at a historical chance of between 30-50%. A win over Georgia Tech on Thursday would push them even higher. Beating BC on Friday isn’t out of the question either – the Terps did win their one meeting this season. If they win those two and then lose to UNC on Saturday, the Terps would be 20-12 with an RPI of between 40-45. If they were left out with 20 wins, it would be a precedent.
But you know what, that’s not really the whole story of ACC bubble teams. People will call me crazy, but take a look at Clemson. Like Maryland, they are 18-11. Their RPI sucks (70), but with two wins, you can be sure that that would climb. Of course, their second win would have to be over Duke, so it’s pretty unlikely, but at the same time, it would be mighty valuable (and would add up to a five-game winning streak). It’s a pretty unlikely happening, but it’s not impossible, especially with the way that Duke has been playing.
But back to reality. Let me sum up Maryland and Florida State’s resumes:
FSU
Pros

• 19 wins
• Controversial loss to Duke (half a win)
• Actual win over Duke
• Four wins in last five games
• Strong non-RPI computer ratings (see below)

Cons

• Poor RPI of 56
• Weak non-conference schedule (one game against a top-100 school and they lost)
• Only one win over tournament team

Maryland
Pros

• 18 wins
• Quality wins over Arkansas and Boston College
• Decent non-conference schedule (Gonzaga, Arkansas, GW, Temple)
• Decent RPI of 47

Cons

• 5-7 since losing Chris McCray (the committee does take personnel changes into account)
• 2-8 against likely NCAA teams

Standings? You want the expanded standings? YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE UP-TO-DATE EXPANDED STANDINGS!!

Team	prev/cur	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Greenfield	RPI	Avg.	Postseason Prediction	Trend
Duke (27-3, 14-2)	prev	1	1	1	1	1	Will probably need to make the ACC finals to ensure a 1 seed.
	cur	1	1	3	1	1.5
UNC (21-6, 12-4)	prev	12	9	14	13	12	Looking like a 2 seed now.  A 3 at the worst.
	cur	7	8	9	8	7
BC (24-6, 11-5)	prev	25	19	18	35	24.25	A 5 or 6 seed.  Good candidate for an upset loss.
	cur	23	21	19	32	23.75
NC State (21-8, 10-6)	prev	17	16	17	34	21	Hard to tell.  Anywhere from a 4 to an 9 seed.
	cur	22	18	23	40	25.75
FSU (19-8, 9-7)	prev	35	39	39	65	44.5	A dangerous 9 – 11 seed.
	cur	27	24	27	56	33.5
Maryland (18-11, 8-8)	prev	54	43	47	51	48.75	NCAA! Anywhere from an 9 to 12 seed.
	cur	57	39	46	47	47.25
Clemson (18-11, 7-9)	prev	65	56	64	72	64.25	NIT
	cur	56	56	57	70	59.75
Miami (15-14, 7-9)	prev	57	73	55	71	64	NIT
	cur	60	74	58	81	68.25
Virginia (14-13, 7-9)	prev	74	60	59	67	65	NIT, but just barely.
	cur	82	73	63	77	73.75
VA Tech (14-15, 4-12)	prev	67	80	77	116	85	Spring football!
	cur	70	84	87	131	93
GA Tech (11-16, 4-12)	prev	94	90	106	137	106.75	What number does Thaddeus Young want to wear?
	cur	94	96	107	150	111.75
Wake Forest (15-15, 3-13)	prev	106	97	100	113	104	Shopping for defensive plans on eBay.
	cur	93	85	88	107	93.25