I decided to do a quick run through of the brackets using just a few computer ratings to pick teams. It turns out that whether you use Pomeroy, Sagarin or RPI, you get pretty similar results. Surprisingly, each of the computer ratings would pick only six or seven upsets (lower seed beating higher seed) in the whole tournament.
Sagarin has UNC, Illinois, Wake Forest and Duke in the Final Four with Illinois winning it all.
Pomeroy has the exact same Final Four and winner as Sagarin.
The RPI has Kansas, Illinois, Washington and Duke in the Final Four with Kansas (!!) winning it all. Outside of Kansas’ surprising run, the RPI picks only two upsets in the whole tourney, which I guess isn’t too surprising since that’s the computer model they use for their seeding.
When you consider that Sagarin and Pomeroy pick only six and seven upsets, I wonder why the RPI is used at all. It seems to come to basically the same conclusions as the more sensible computer ratings. The main difference is Kansas, a team whose RPI the committee largely ignored.
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Computer Picks
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