It’s getting to be the time of year when you can start to seriously evaluate teams’ postseason chances. With about a month of play left to determine things, it’s still a bit early for some teams, but we can certainly tell who the significant players are.
With that in mind, I’m reviving a feature I started last year where I look at several different computer ratings, including the RPI, and see how the ACC teams stack up. I use non-RPI ratings for two main reasons. First, the RPI just isn’t a very good system and second, because if you look at past history, other computer ratings systems have been as effective or even more effective than the RPI in finding NCAA tournament teams. Remember, the RPI is only one tool that the selection committee uses. All of the other factors they weigh, overall record, good wins, bad losses, late season surges/slumps, etc. are factored into any good computer rating. Plus, there’s nothing that says they don’t crack open a USA Today and look at Sagarin’s numbers.
So anyway, here is a table of the ACC teams and how they are doing. Starting next week, I’ll have current and previous numbers in there along with an arrow showing if the team is rising or falling. For this week, I pointed the arrow the way I think the teams are going.
Team | prev/cur | Avg. | Postseason Prediction | Trend | ||||
Duke (23-1, 11-0) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Absolute lock for a 1 seed | |
cur | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
NC State (19-5, 8-3) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Either a 3 or a 4 seed | |
cur | 17 | 15 | 15 | 21 | 17 | |||
BC (19-5, 7-4) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Either a 3 or a 4 seed | |
cur | 20 | 19 | 20 | 29 | 22 | |||
UNC (15-6, 6-4) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Probably a 4 or 5 seed | |
cur | 19 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 19.75 | |||
Miami (14-10, 6-5) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Just misses out on NCAA | |
cur | 58 | 73 | 52 | 82 | 66.25 | |||
Virginia (12-9, 6-5) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| NIT and happy | |
cur | 65 | 62 | 55 | 56 | 59.5 | |||
FSU (15-6, 5-5) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Strong 10 seed | |
cur | 28 | 36 | 34 | 67 | 41.25 | |||
Maryland (15-8, 5-5) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| 9 seed | |
cur | 36 | 34 | 40 | 41 | 37.75 | |||
VA Tech (13-11, 3-8) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Watching spring football | |
cur | 63 | 81 | 76 | 114 | 83.5 | |||
Clemson (14-10, 3-8) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Squeaks into NIT | |
cur | 81 | 71 | 73 | 73 | 74.5 | |||
GA Tech (10-12, 3-8) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Looking forward to next year | |
cur | 104 | 100 | 109 | 136 | 112.25 | |||
Wake Forest (13-11, 1-9) | prev |
|
|
|
|
| Turmoil | |
cur | 89 | 89 | 93 | 109 | 95 |
Leave a Reply