In case you haven’t heard, there’s a big ACC football game this weekend. An ACC game with national implications. That just doesn’t happen much in this league (for the purposes of this column, the Miami-FSU game earlier this season didn’t really count as an ACC game). In fact, the Virginia-Florida State game on Saturday night is just the sixth game in ACC history between top ten teams. It has the two highest ranked teams since #3 FSU hosted #5 North Carolina in 1997.
So, in honor of this big game, I’m gonna break it down a bit statistically. The best way to compare teams before they play is to look at common opponents. It’s not a perfect science, but it’s the best objective method we have. Fortunately, even though both teams have played just five games, they have three common opponents. Even more coincidently, five of those six games have been home games, with only the Seminoles’ trip to Syracuse last weekend as an exception.
So, just who has done better against those common opponents? Let’s take a look-see, shall we?
First, let’s take a look at the basic stats from the games, including final scores and offensive and defense yards:

Virginia Florida State
North Carolina
Score 56-24 38-16
Offense 549 442
Defense 434 363
Clemson
Score 30-10 41-22
Offense 464 370
Defense 211 171
Syracuse
Score 31-10 17-13
Offense 427 427
Defense 254 265
Average
Score 39-15 32-17
Offense 480 413
Defense 300 266

The first thing to look at is that Virginia won by a wider margin in all three games. Both teams beat UNC and Clemson fairly comfortably, but only Virginia handled Syracuse easily. Virginia outscored Florida State against two of the three teams and also allowed fewer points in two of the three games. The average score of the three games was 39-15 for UVA and 32-17 for FSU, about a one touchdown advantage for the Cavs.
For offensive yardage production, Virginia outgained FSU. In two of the three games, the difference was fairly significant (about one hundred yards) and against Syracuse, oddly enough, they managed the exact same amount of yards. The average gain for UVA was a whopping 480 yards and for Florida State, a solid 413. Again, advantage Cavaliers.
On the defensive side of the ball, Florida State was more impressive. They allowed fewer yards in two of the three games and were pretty close in the fourth. One thing to take notice of though is that FSU allowed 40 fewer yards against Clemson, but gave up two touchdowns on returns. Those returns robbed Clemson of two offensive possessions where they probably would have gotten a few more yards. The overall average yards against was 266 for Florida State to 300 for Virginia. Advantage Noles.
So, looking at those three games against common opponents, you have to give the edge to UVA. They score more points and move the ball more, while allowing fewer points. Teams do move the ball better against UVA, but that could be due to the bend-but-don’t-break mentality of their schemes. FSU plays a much more aggressive style, trying to get to the quarterback and force mistakes.
If you look at all five games played and compare to national numbers, you get the following rankings (thanks to the ACC weekly release):

Virginia

Florida State

national rank average national rank average
Score Off.

3

42.4

46

28.0

Rush Off.

5

275.0

19

200.2

Pass Off.

48

218.2

87

178.4

Total Off.

5

493.2

54

378.6

Score Def.

7

11.6

18

14.8

Rush Def.

11

85.4

3

65.6

Pass Def.

16

163.2

45

196.2

Total Def.

6

248.6

10

261.8

TO Margin

20

1.0

35

0.6


Both teams have very impressive numbers across the board, but Virginia’s are actually better in every category except for Rushing Defense. That could end of being a very import stat to watch in the game, as each team uses a power running game to set up their passing attack.
So, how about special teams? Virginia leads the ACC in kickoff returns and is second in punt returns. Florida State is 10th and 8th, respectively. For punt coverage however, FSU ranks third while UVA is worst in the conference with a net of only 29 yards.
Penalties are a category that is often overlooked by football analysts. Florida State has long had a reputation as a team that commits lots of penalties, but it’s never really hurt them too much. This year though, their offense isn’t quite as powerful, so their league worst 82.4 yards of penalties per game could be an issue. Virginia costs themselves only 42.4 yards per game by miscues, a forty yard difference. That’s not insignificant.
Lastly, let’s take a look at the Sagarin ratings. I like stats, so I’ve long been a Sagarin supporter. I prefer computer rankings (good ones, that is), because they have no biases. They don’t care how good you were last year or how many alumni you have. Also, the computers can do a much better job of finding the correlations between all the different teams and the games they play each weekend.
What does Sagarin say? His rankings have Florida State at #6 in the country and Virginia at #14. As you can see, his computers aren’t as impressed with UVA’s 5-0 start as the human voters. I have a hunch that the computer is right, at least at this point. The actual ratings for the two teams are 88.09 for the Seminoles and 84.90 for the Cavaliers. Add in the three point home field advantage, and his model predicts a one touchdown win for Florida State.
So, what does all this mean, with some numbers saying Virginia is better and some saying Florida State is better? It doesn’t mean a ton actually. Past performances won’t win the game Saturday night. What the numbers do tell us is that these two teams are pretty closely matched. They have similar strengths and weaknesses, but Virginia has played a bit better so far (except in Jeff Sagarin’s algorithm). One factor the numbers can’t measure is the psychological impact of such a big game. Florida State has a huge edge here, as they play several games like this each year. They are used to playing in and winning these games. On top of that, while Virginia really hopes to beat Florida State and it would mean a ton to the program, the Seminoles expect to beat Virginia. There’s a big difference.
Who do I think will win? I don’t know. My brain says Florida State, but that’s largely out of fear. I think it will be a close game and I think Virginia can win. If I had to bet though, I’d pick the Noles, purely for the mental issues and the home crowd.


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