Number Crunching – 2/5/07

Hey kids! Did you miss me?
I was down in Myrtle Beach playing golf for several days (key lesson learned: I suck at golf.) and then came back to do a little work around the house (wink, wink).
Anyhoo, while I didn’t find any time to post for the past couple of weeks, I did still follow ACC basketball. I’d like to do a long post going over all the games since my last review, but it’s probably more important right now to see where we are.


It’s been a very interesting few weeks with clutch wins, heartbreaking losses, teams falling apart and teams making serious moves. If you’ll recall my last look at the ACC numbers, I pointed out that at the time, eight ACC squads had NCAA Tourney-quality resumes. I figured that wouldn’t hold. It hasn’t. Right now, you could argue that nine teams deserve bids. Nine out of twelve! The shakiest two of those are UVA, who’s been on fire, and Georgia Tech, who’s been on ice. The Cavaliers have power ratings between the mid-30s and low-40s – right about the cutoff line, while the Yellow Jackets range from a comfortable 19 to a get-ready-for-the-NIT 59. If the season were to end today, the committee would have to decide what was more relevant for the Wreck, their recent skid or their five total wins over top 30 (Pomeroy ratings) teams.
But, enough yammering. Let’s see that table!

Team Overall ACC Pomeroy Pom. Off. Pom. Def. Sagarin RPI Trend
North Carolina 20-3 6-2 1 7 2 1 2 up
Duke 18-4 5-4 6 48 1 11 7 down
Clemson 18-5 4-5 20 37 22 17 22 down
Florida St. 17-6 4-4 30 17 60 22 27 up
Maryland 17-6 3-5 23 58 16 25 30 down
Georgia Tech 14-8 3-6 19 19 39 26 59 down
Boston College 16-6 7-2 36 12 87 29 25 up
Virginia Tech 16-7 6-3 38 40 38 38 35 down
Virginia 15-6 7-2 41 21 82 34 39 up
North Carolina St. 13-8 3-5 74 57 107 86 102 up
Wake Forest 10-12 2-8 84 93 104 101 126 up
Miami FL 9-14 2-7 122 65 211 150 162 down

You’ll notice that I added one extra column – Trend. This is a quick way to see how teams have fared since I did this last, on January 16. In fact, as I talk a bit about these, it might be handy for you to pop up that article in another window.
My observations:

  • Good googily moogily, Virginia has jumped up (80 spots in the RPI!)! I guess that’s what six consecutive January wins will do for you. If only they hadn’t gone to Puerto Rico.
  • As you might have guessed, the computers are also happy with what NC State has done. It looks like their defense has been a big part of their recent success. Same for the Cavs, actually.
  • The computers aren’t as down on Duke as most human observers probably are, but you should know that Pomeroy’s numbers don’t yet reflect the Blue Devils’ loss to FSU yesterday.
  • Last time around, Carolina had the #3 offense and #10 defense in the land. They are still in the top ten in both, but now the defense actually rates higher, at #2 while the O has dropped to #7. I wonder what Huckleberry Hound has been stressing in practice?
  • Miami of Florida is worse than Miami of Ohio. And the one in Ohio has a losing record.
  • The top three teams in the ACC standings are BC, VT and UVA, but the computers put none of those teams in the top half of the power ratings. BTW, Pomeroy picks BC and VT to finish 10-6 and the Cavs 11-5.

Well, I could go on, but I’ll leave it there for now. You’d be surprised how much work piles up when you are gone for a week and a half!


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