We all know that for all the talk about coaches, it’s really talent that wins and loses in college basketball. The greatest coach in the world isn’t going to build a top ten team out of a bunch of scrubs.
A poster at TheSabre.com wrote up a great piece breaking down the talent at each ACC school according to their high school ratings. He used Prep Stars Recruiting Handbooks and ACC Area Sports Journals for his numbers.
For those that don’t want to actually go to the site, I’ll duplicate his post here. If he had an email or something, I’d give him better credit, but I only know his handle, 1969hoo.

1. UNC – 4 top 10’s, 2 from 11 to 25, 2 from 26 to 50. Roy Williams is
making ‘hay’ with Doherty’s recruits, but he is also continuing the
recruiting excellence at UNC with next year’s class. The only ‘good’
thing is that UNC could lose their top 7 or 8 players, if Felton, McCants,
May and Marvin Williams go to the NBA. Roy is bringing in 4 top 50’s,
so there is no need to shed any tears for the Tar Heels.
Sr – J Williams 11, Scott 25, Manual 30
Jr -Felton 3, McCants 4, May 9
Soph – Terry 43
Fr – M Williams 4
Next Yr – Hansborough 5, Frasor 19, Ginyard 43, Green 47
2. Duke – 1 top 10, 3 from 11 to 25, 1 from 26 to 50. By Duke standards
there is drought of talent in Durham this year. Remember that Duke lost
Luol Deng a #2 to the NBA, Kris Humphries #11 to some dispute after
signing an LOI and he is now in the NBA, and Shaun Livingston also a
#2 to the NBA. Like UNC, Duke might be hurting if Shelden Williams
and/or Redick go to the NBA, but then you look at the incoming class.
Oh well, Duke should be Duke again next year.
Sr – Ewing 31
Jr – Williams 10, Redick 12, Randolph 15, Dockery 25
Soph – Melchionni 119
Fr – Nelson 11, McClure 54
Next Yr – McRoberts 7, Boateng 20, Paulus 43, Boykin 29
3. Wake Forest – 1 top 10, 1 from 11 to 25, 1 from 26 to 50, 1 from 50
to 75. This team is overachieving a bit, based in large part on Odom’s
recruits (Levy, Downey, Gray, Strickland, and in part Eric Williams on
whom Prosser sealed the deal after Odom started the recruiting
process). WF is a veteran team with a super star point guard in Chris
Paul. The WF fans are thrilled, but I think WF is going to drop to the
middle or even bottom third of the ACC in two years. If Paul and/or
Williams go to the NBA next year, the dive may start even sooner.
Prosser’s last two recruiting classes have been ordinary by ACC
standards. Before many here celebrate Prosser as one of those mid
major coaches who took a team to the top, let’s wait a couple of years
and see if he can stay there.
Sr – Levy 47, Downey 159
Jr – E Williams 20, Gray 52, Strickland 80, Ellis 140
Soph – Paul 9, Visser 162
Fr – Stanley 111
Next Yr – Weaver 53, Hale 123, Swinton 132
4 Georgia Tech – 1 top 25, 2 from 26 to 50, 4 from 50 to 100.Hewitt’s
first class plus Jarret Jack are doing an excellent job this year. It is a
veteran team. If Jack goes to the NBA, things could head south in
hurry. Hewitt’s recent recruiting is a distant 3rd/4th to UNC and Duke. I
think Hewitt and GT will remain a 3 to 6 team in the ACC for many
years, but they will never catch UNC and Duke as exhibited by the
recent good, but not great, recruiting.
Sr – Muhammad 45, Bynum 56, Elder 78, McHenry (top 100 by other
recruiting services), Schenscher unranked because he was a foreign
player but surely a top 100 prospect at 7-2
Jr – Jack 18, Tarver 124
Soph – none
Fr – Dickey 37, Frederick 57, Smith 92, Morrow 95
Next Yr – Clinch 50 Aminu 64, Bell 99, Jackson 162
5. UMD – 1 top 25, but Mike Jones has not lived up to his ranking yet, 4
from 25 to 50, and 3 from 51 to 100. Gary Williams is an excellent
coach. He does not get that many of the top players and personally I
think he should be able to get more, but he does get a whole bunch of
25 to 100 players, which allows him to stay in the upper half of the
ACC. This level of recruiting should have been attainable by Gillen at
UVa, but he failed miserably. I see UMD as a 3 to 6 ACC team for
many years. If UNC, Duke, and WF lose enough underclasmen to the
NBA, UMD may well be the ACC champion next year.
Sr – none
Jr – Gilchrist 28, Garrison 37, McCray 65, Medley, 81
Soph – Jones 17, Ibekwe 36, Strawberry 93, Bowers 116
Fr – Gist 41
Next Yr – Clark 87
6. NCS gets #6 by a whisker over FSU. 1 top 25, 3 from 25 to 50.
Sendek’s Princeton offense type of system drives many NCS fans up
the wall. NCS has had some injuries this year. If things continue
heading south Sendek could get the axe, but think he will hold on. His
recent recruiting has been good enough to stay in the from 3 to 6 in the
ACC.
Sr – Hodge 9, Watkins 46, Collins 127
Jr – Bennerman 83, Evtimov unranked, Bethel 138
Soph – Atsur unranked because he is from Turkey
Fr – Simmons 30, Brackman 43, Grant 77
Next Yr – Costner 34, Falls, 56, McCaulay 98
7. FSU – 1 top 25, 4 from 25 to 50, 1 from 50 to 100. Hamilton is doing
pretty well for a football school. His soph and freshman classes look
pretty good. FSU may well become a middle, or possibly better, of the
pack ACC team. His recent recruiting has been above average.
Sr – Richardson 27, Waleskowski 83
Jr – Thornton 78, Galloway 93, Romero #10 JUCO, Griffin top 100
JUCO
Soph – Wafer 12, Johnson 28
Fr – Swann 36, Rich 38, Habel 121, Mims 162
Next yr – Breeden 117, Reid 153
8 UVA – 3 from 35 to 52, plus Devin, all others are #91 or lower. Our
incoming recruits will be the worst class that I can remember and we
have had some really bad ones recently. Gillen will lose his job
because he could not recruit enough quality players to even be a middle
of the pack ACC team. Except for Sean Singletary, our next coach will
have little talent to work (relative to the talent at the other ACC
schools). It is very frustrating to be a UVA BB fan. On that we can all
agree.
Sr – Brown 50, Clark 79 (inelgible), Harper 115 (gone), Jenifer 121
(gone), Smith unranked in HS but #4 JUCO
Jr – Byars 64 (gone)
Soph – Forbes 52, Minter 91, Reynolds 95, Bannister 115, Cain 139
Fr – Singletary 35, Joseph 135, Soroye 196
Next Yr – Mikalauskas 145, Wareen, 155, Diane, 168, Moten (if he
qualifies) approx 225
9. Clemson – Purnell is trying hard to turn around this coach’s grave
yard. His recent recruiting has been good by Clemson historical
standards, but near the bottom of the barrel for the ACC.
Sr – Ford 107, Babalola unranked from England
Jr – Robinson 129, Akingbala 169, Allen 206
Soph – Hamilton 120
Fr – Perry 62, Mathis 84, Mays 89, Moore 100, Hammonds 184
Next Yr – Rivers 65, Powell 104, Sykes approx 225
10, 11, 12 BC, VT, and Miami – while BC is very, very good this year
none of these teams have recruited well in recent years. So far VT and
Miami have been major surprises, but I think the long term talent level is
simply not going to be good enough, except to fight it out for the bottom
third of the ACC with Clemson and for the near at least alas UVA.