Riding The Waves

In the world of electricity, there is a mathematical calculation called root mean squared (RMS). This is the way that we measure the voltage of an alternating current. When you plug your TV into the the 110 volt plug in your wall, you are really getting voltages rising from +165 volts to -165 volts. The root mean square is a way to take that sinusoidal form and calculate a nominal voltage. At any given time, the voltage may be higher or lower, but it averages out to 110 volts (more or less).
The fortunes of college basketball programs take similar shapes. Some years they are on highs and some years lows. Unfortunately fans can’t seem to calculate the RMS. They see the highs and think that’s the true measure of their program. They see the lows and think it’s time to fire the coach. It’s hard to see the big picture, to find that nominal value of a program.
Al Featherston wrote an outstanding piece for the Duke Basketball Report last week about this phenomenon. He makes a point that I’ve tried to make on this site numerous times over the years, but fortunately Featherston is a much better writer than I’ll ever be. The point is that even the truly great programs – Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, UCLA, etc. – have their ebbs and flows. They rise and fall like the tides, but their fans often fail to see that their overall level, their RMS, remains extremely high. Instead, fans see that Kentucky hasn’t made a Final Four in nearly a decade. UConn’s going to miss the NCAA Tournament this year? Kansas seems to always underachieve in the tournament. That’s what the fans notice. What they fail to recognize is just how special their programs are, just how successful they have been and still are.
No program wins every year. None. Carolina went 8-20 a few years ago. Duke is 8-8 in the ACC this year. It happens to all of them. Rarely does it actually mean that the coach or the program is failing.
Give Al’s piece a read. Obviously it’s centered around Duke and Coach Krzyzewski, but it’s really about every program in the country and the disconnect between perception and reality.


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