I’ve written several times in the past couple of weeks about how fans of Virginia and NC State have been prematurely panicking about their teams’ chances. It’s too early for that, I argued. There’s plenty of season left.
Well, now it’s time.
Last night’s losses, Virginia at Maryland and NC State at Virginia Tech, left them each in deep holes. Deep. Let’s get a flashlight and peer down there and see just how far down they are. Is there a chance that hey can scratch and claw back up to the sunlight? Or does Lassie need to go get help?
The Cavaliers are now 0-5 in the ACC. They didn’t play a very good non-conference schedule, but did manage one impressive win with an 18 point whipping of Arizona. That big win probably means that the Cavs could garner a bid with a 7-9 record in the brutal ACC. Given that they have already lost five times, a little basic math says that they need to go 7-4 the rest of the way. Here are their eleven remaining games (with f for favorite and ‘u’ for underdog according to Pomeroy’s Ratings):
Home against Clemson (f)
Home and away against Virginia Tech (f, f)
Home and away against UNC (u, u)
Home and away against State (f, u)
Home and away against FSU (f, u)
Home against Maryland (u)
At Wake Forest (u)
There are three scheduled losses in there – the two Carolina games and at Wake. That means UVA must go 7-1 in the rest of those games, even though they’ll be favored in only five of them. Looks pretty unlikely, huh? While Virginia might be able to land the two upsets it needs, odds are they won’t hold serve in all the games in which they are favored. It doesn’t help that starting forward Jason Clark is academically ineligible for the rest of the year (and his career).
Now how about State? State has no good non-conference wins, so I think they need to go 8-8 to get a bid. They are 1-3 now, so that means they need to finish 7-5. Let’s look at their schedule:
Home and away against Maryland (u, u)
Home against Florida State (f)
At Clemson (u)
Home and away against UNC (u, u)
Home and away against UVA (f, u)
Home and away against Wake (u, u)
At Georgia Tech (u)
Home against Virginia Tech (f)
That looks even bleaker than Virginia’s road. State has only three games left where they will be favored, but yet need to win seven. Time to get in line for those NIT tickets, Wolfpackers! Oh, and since you aren’t gonna make the tourney, would it be too much to ask to go ahead and tank those Virginia games? It’d be good for the conference, you know! 😉
BTW, looking at Pomeroy’s predictions, outside of the big four (Duke, Wake, Carolina and Wake), only Maryland is predicted to go 8-8 or better. Miami is looking at 7-9, which put them on the lower half of the bubble, I think. One thing’s for sure – all that talk of seven bids looks pretty foolish now. The conference may get only five (don’t believe those who would say it will be just four).
ps. Little tip to Herb Sendek and the boys. You might want to work a little on those end-of-game situations. You’ve put forth of the most horrendous attempts I’ve seen in the last two losses.
37 responses to “Time To Panic”
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