Evidently not everyone is enamored with this little bit of statistical onanism, but I think it’s still fun. I’m not really sold on the accuracy of Log5 predictions, but I’ll give Ken Pomeroy the benefit of the doubt. I’m sure he’s looked into it.
Anyway, here is an update to last week’s preliminary Log5 predictions.
The Cliff’s Notes version – despite the craziness of the weekend, Carolina is still an overwhelming favorite to win the ACC Tournament. The Heels have a 50% chance of winning the whole thing. Of course, there’s no statistical model that can account for Tyler Hansbrough’s broken beak.
For the other teams, Duke comes in at about 18% (although again, it doesn’t know that Gerald Henderson won’t play against NC State on Thursday), Maryland is at 14%, Georgia Tech is 9% and the Hokies are at 3%. The ACC co-regular season champion Virginia Cavaliers have a whopping 2% chance of winning the ACC Tournament!
Actually, that last stat right there is pretty crazy. If you look at the chart, you’ll see that UVA is predicted to have just a 25% chance of winning on Friday. Their opponent will be either Duke or NC State. Virginia played three games against those teams this year. Their record in those games? 3-0. 25% indeed.
So, take this all with a big ol’ grain of salt.