I’m getting this out a bit late, so I won’t go into too much detail about the weekend games. If you haven’t read plenty about the big games yet, you probably don’t care to now either.
The best game of the weekend of course was the Duke-Carolina game. Great game. The first half was particularly fun to watch, as both teams came out with incredible intensity and the players were playing well. You rarely get both – emotion and execution (see the Wake-State game as evidence), but we had it on Sunday. J.J. Redick was nailing jumpers on one end of the floor while Sean May was tearing up the post on the other end. The second half got a bit rattier as both teams cooled off, but that was offset by the incredible ending. My wife had to leave the room after Lee Melchionni hit his three that put Duke up by nine. She couldn’t watch.
For Carolina to end a game like that on an 11-0 run is something that no one could have predicted. They had struggled to score all half and Duke was showing great poise. Marvin Williams’ rebound and subsequent three point play that put Carolina up two will go down in series and ACC lore – just a terrific, clutch play.
A couple of random thoughts from that game:
– Sean May’s 26 and 24 line was simply incredible. I don’t think enough has been made of this. He was truly dominant and that was against a great player in Shelden Williams. The amazing thing is that Williams also had a great game. There’s not much better than watching two talented players go at each other and both produce.
– Shelden Williams blocked several dunk attempts. To me, that may be the most beautiful play in basketball – the clean block of a dunk. Always gets my motor running.
– Should Duke be concerned that Redick went so cold in the second half or that they gave up 24 rebounds to May? Or should they be happy that they still almost won?
– Should Carolina be concerned that Raymond Felton and Jawad Williams both failed to play terribly well in a big game? Or should they be happy that they beat a good team anyway?
I had a headline all ready for Maryland’s gag job in Blacksburg. I see no reason for it go to waste:
Large Tortoise Chokes On Turkey – Misses Dance!
How badly is Maryland screwing up their season? Just a couple of weeks ago, they were the one team outside of the big three that seemed to have gotten their act together. They were back in the national rankings and were a lock for the tourney. Then they lost. And lost again. And again. They went from sure thing to bubble to out of the tourney.
Just awful. Maryland absolutely has to win a game or two in the ACC tournament (brackets here). The thing is, despite the fact that they’ve already beaten the Terps twice, I don’t think Clemson is a good enough opponent to help Maryland. Why would beating the NIT-bound Tigers prove that the Terrapins are a tournament-quality team? No, to ensure a bid, they’re going to need to beat or come very close to beating UNC in the second round.
Speaking of awful, how about that NC State-Wake Forest game? Everyone’s talking about Chris Paul’s nut shot, but that’s largely because the game itself was so heinous. I was fortunate enough to only see the last ten minutes. Thank god. I don’t think I could have handled more. Sure, the teams were trying hard, but the play was rough and physical and there were too many whistles. It was excruciating. My thought at the time was that it was poorly officiated, but thinking back, I don’t think the refs had much of a chance. They could have called five fouls per possession. As it was, they only called about two per.
Like Maryland, the loss killed NC State. Unlike Maryland, State was not already in the tourney, but a win over Wake would have helped a lot. Now, they definitely need at least two wins in the ACC tourney. If they get past Florida State in the first round, they get a rematch against the Deacons, who won’t have Chris Paul. Here’s the funny (well, it’s funny to me. I’m guessing Pack fans aren’t amused) thing about that. If State goes on to beat Wake without Paul, will the NCAA committee be impressed? I bet they won’t be. So a quick rundown of the damage Chris Paul did to State in that game – he hit Julius Hodge in the little Jules without a foul call, he later drew a technical foul on Hodge, he hit a runner at the buzzer to win the game and keep the Pack from a big win and now by being suspended, he has eliminated State’s opportunity for a good win. Now, I think the Pack needs to get all the way to the finals and make a strong showing. Even then, they’ll be at the mercy of schools in other conferences.
The only other game of note from the weekend was Georgia Tech’s narrow win over Clemson at home. The win sealed the Yellow Jacket’s NCAA bid, but you can’t feel good about their chances right now. They just aren’t playing that well. I have a hard time seeing them make the Sweet Sixteen unless they decide to start playing some consistent defense.
And now for my last computer rankings chart of the season. As you’ll see, it pretty clearly shows that only four teams deserve a bid at this point. You’ll hear some talking heads like Digger Phelps say that Virginia Tech should get in, but don’t believe it for a second (if you need me to tell you to distrust Phelps’ opinion, I don’t want you reading my site). They have been a nice story, but they don’t have the numbers to deserve a bid.
Actually, before I show the chart, let me give a little NCAA bid rundown of things that do and don’t matter:
Does Matter:
Overall record – For years the magic number for a bid for an ACC team has been 17 wins. It’s not a guarantee, but if you don’t have 17, don’t expect to go dancing.
Strength of schedule – Teams that play a tough non-conference schedule will get the benefit of the doubt. That’s why Hokies don’t have a shot. They didn’t play anyone, but yet they lost some games anyway.
How You Finish – The committee wants to see teams who are winning late in the season. That works against all of the ACC’s bubble teams right now.
Computer Ratings – Not just the RPI, but all the computer ratings. I wrote before that I read someone saying they did a study and a combined rating from several rankings was a more accurate predictor than the RPI alone. Check my table below.
Doesn’t Matter:
Conference Record – It drives me nuts when I hear people constantly saying that 8-8 will get you in or 7-9 won’t. Forget it. The committee doesn’t care a bit. The only thing that 8-8 does is mean you won 8 relatively tough games. Many times in the past they’ve picked teams that finished behind teams that didn’t get selected.
Head-To-Head Record – They don’t care that you beat some other bubble team straight up. As an example, a few years ago, UVA finished ahead of Carolina in the ACC standings (see above) and swept them, but Carolina went dancing while UVA printed up NIT tickets.
Conference RPI Rating – You’ll hear talking heads talk about how this conference or that is ranked #2 in the RPI, so it deserves X number of teams. That’s a bunch of crap. They don’t care. They just want to know what each individual team did.
Lastly, take a look at some projection sites. They usually do a pretty good job. A guy from SAS sent me this link to tournament projections done using SAS’s software. From their projections, Maryland has eight teams to leap to get in. NC State has twenty teams to leap! Miami is actually closer than State, with only thirteen teams to pass.
Tony Mejia of Sportsline.com has NC State in.
ESPN.com isn’t bullish on any of the ACC bubble teams.
Joe Lunardi (also on ESPN.com) has Maryland and State in with Virginia Tech close (I think he’s high).
Enough of my ramblings. On with the ratings. Here’s where things stand as of 3/7/05:
Team | prev/cur | Pomeroy | Sagarin | Greenfield | RPI | Avg. | Trend |
Carolina (26-3, 24-2) | prev | 71.31 (2) | 96.02 (1) | 97.012 (2) | .6521 (7) | 3 | |
cur | 70.80 (2) | 96.38 (1) | 97.043 (2) | .6522 (4) | 2.25 | ||
Wake Forest (26-4, 13-3) | prev | 67.79 (3) | 92.50 (4) | 94.669 (3) | .6561 (4) | 3.5 | |
cur | 67.55 (3) | 92.69 (3) | 94.737 (3) | .6568 (2) | 2.75 | ||
Duke (22-5, 11-5) | prev | 66.87 (4) | 92.87 (3) | 92.861 (5) | .6513 (8) | 5 | |
cur | 67.53 (4) | 93.05 (3) | 93.013 (4) | .6506 (5) | 4 | ||
Georgia Tech (17-10, 8-8) | prev | 60.39 (26) | 85.51 (24) | 85.922 (29) | .5760 (43) | 30.5 | |
cur | 60.65 (27) | 85.94 (22) | 86.063 (28) | .5774 (37) | 28.5 | ||
Maryland (16-11, 7-9) | prev | 59.75 (32) | 84.61 (27) | 85.040 (35) | .5798 (38) | 33 | |
cur | 59.07 (40) | 83.75 (34) | 84.155 (46) | .5680 (49) | 42.25 | ||
NC State (17-12, 7-9) | prev | 59.75 (33) | 83.24 (37) | 84.012 (45) | .5452 (89) | 51 | |
cur | 60.05 (32) | 83.55 (35) | 84.478 (43) | .5444 (90) | 50 | ||
Miami (16-11, 7-9) | prev | 56.14 (72) | 81.88 (51) | 82.749 (58) | .5605 (62) | 60.75 | |
cur | 55.99 (79) | 81.66 (57) | 82.716 (56) | .5622 (58) | 62.5 | ||
Clemson (15-14, 5-11) | prev | 57.40 (55) | 80.82 (66) | 81.736 (67) | .5385 (100) | 72 | |
cur | 56.96 (63) | 80.75 (65) | 81.739 (69) | .5341 (102) | 74.75 | ||
VA Tech (15-12, 7-7) | prev | 54.52 (92) | 78.71 (89) | 81.340 (75) | .5277 (117) | 93.25 | |
cur | 55.48 (83) | 79.05 (84) | 81.671 (73) | .5244 (120) | 90 | ||
Virginia (13-14, 4-12) | prev | 54.37 (94) | 79.85 (72) | 81.648 (69) | .5621 (59) | 73.5 | |
cur | 53.93 (101) | 78.99 (86) | 80.462 (87) | .5430 (92) | 91.5 | ||
FSU (12-18, 4-12) | prev | 54.67 (90) | 77.28 (106) | 78.676 (112) | .5087 (150) | 114.5 | |
cur | 54.77 (90) | 77.87 (98) | 79.122 (110) | .5144 (138) | 109 |
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